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I started this site to share my daily best sports bets. The main focus being UK and Ireland horse racing. I have been following horse racing for 15 years as a hobby, watching races and analyzing race stats. I’d like to share my findings with you and, although you do not get it always right, I hope you’ll be able to benefit from my reviews.
All my recommendations focus on value, thus you won't find short priced favorites that can have off-days too, can fall or have no luck in running. The same kind of applies to every sport, hence I am not taking over any responsibility if my tips fail. I hope you’ll enjoy the site and hopefully daily.
Terrible racing results yesterday, but looking back, it kind of did not surprise me very much. Season end on the flat and start to the National Hunt season. A lot of unknown, such as which horse is still fresh and which horse matured over the summer to make a successful jumps start. I have the feeling that it will take another week or two to know to read form more predictable. Anyway, let's see what tomorrow brings. There are races at Aintree, Wincanton and Leopardstown.
2:10 Aintree - Desert Sensation.
Won a class 5 impressively. This is a class 3 though but he seems to be improving with knots of speed. Has highest RPR (+3) and is well ahead of his mark. Runs under a penalty. A lot of unknown in this race though. Currently 15:2 (2pts E/W)
4:50 Leopardstown - Elm Grove
It's end of the flat season and to find a horse that is still relatively fresh is a big task. However this could be the case with Elm Grove. She was a good second last time and is a consistent filly. She has never won off a mark of higher than 67 so this effort off 70 suggests she is still improving.There is plenty of money coming for Elm Grove this morning and he is now favorite. Promising young jockey Billy Lee on board (2pts E/W).
3:50 Aintree - God's Own
Last seen in April when he won a Group 1. The Tom George stable is in good form and it is unlikely that the horse will lack fitness. He is in high regards by the trainer and has won at Aintree before. For his last race he was about 20+ ahead on the RPR than anybody else in this race. Currently 4:1 (3pts E/W)
Mixed results on the horses yesterday, but overall we can be happy. Football went well butTennis brought mixed results too.
Here come my early predictions for a ultra competitive Saturday but there will more to come Saturday morning.
This is very competitive. William du Berlais will go off favorite and deservedly. He is a half brother to 'Brother de Berlais' who achieved an RPR of 136. He needed every yard of the 2m last time and the 2m4f will therefore suit. Given the competitive nature I recommend a 2pts E/W interest at currently around 5:1 but I am sure the odds will shorten tomorrow morning..
There are some interesting E/W propositions in the race. Consider an E/W bet on Tabhachtach, well worth an interest at around 16:1. The jockey Jody McGarvey can't do anything wrong these days and this horse was rated 133 in Jan 2014!!! and had only 1 run this year (1pt E/W).
I can't resist to have a little interest in A Twist of Fate who won with a bit in hand last time out. He is only RPR rated 97 though and carries a penalty. At around 10:1 (0.5pts E/W).
I like Andok to complete the treble but since it's a Nursery I'll keep the stakes low (2pt Win). He did just enough to win a class 2 race and looked like there is still progress in him. His trainer won this race twice in the last 10 years. Novoman is the favorite but he had already 5 races whereas Andok had only 2. Currently Andok is second favorite at about 2:1.
Result: Lost. Came second
This should go to Kilfinichen Bay who won a similar 0-140 race last time over slightly shorter (2pts win), but I fancy a little E/W bet on Ballyrock who was impressive in his last race, a 0-120. Kilfinichen Bay is 2 years younger but Ballyrock is less exposed in Chases (1pt E/W).
This is as competitive as it can get. Comedy School (1pt win) won a Class 3 Nursery impressively and can complete the treble, as can Khafoo Shememi (2pts E/W) who will be suited by the shorter distance and is already rated higher with having had one race less than the former. The value bet however could be Hilario who has much higher rated horses in his family and his trainer, Charles Hills, quoted that he is very pleased with how he is developing. At 12:1 I will be an E/W player (1pt E/W). His jockey however thinks that he is a horse for next year.
I am pretty confident with Executive Force in this race. He is much less exposed than the favorite Rodaini and has already achieved a RPR of 101 after two races. Rodaini had 104 after 4 races. Frankie Dettori is on Eaton Square, just after my seletion in the betting, but he has only achieved an RPR of 89 after 2 races. Executive Force is a half brother to Beautiful Romance who achieved a rating of 114 and he came second in his last race which was a 23K race and that only after his second run. He is my choice at around 9:2 . This race however is full of dangers with plenty of first time out winners in it who could be anything, hence I won't go full in (2pts E/W).
Another race where I wouldn't get involved too much. I think that Top of the Town for the excellent Irish Byrnes yard has a great chance but so has For Good Measure with Richard Johnson on board. And if Zarib from Harry Skelton gets the distance then he'll probably win. I'll go for Top of the Town to complete the treble @1pt E/W. There are plenty of other dangers in the race though.
Result: Lost. Finished 4th
This race is a gamble. Too many if's. Aflame could easily complete the four time. Clear Water is progressive and so is Perfectly Spirited. Not a race to get too much involved but by the evidence the best bet would be Clear Water (1pt E/W) @ around 9:2.
Last Group 1 of the flat season.This should really go to Aiden O'Brians Yucatan but the trainer also has a nice colt with Anvil in the race. O'Brian has had a couple of 1-2s in the last races, so why not try a 1-2 here or even a tricast with Finn McCool? The other horses are no donkeys though, hence the odds for Yucatan are ridiculously low with Evens for a win, hence I only recommend a small interest for the fun of it (1pt win)
Result: Lost. Rivet won it
This should be between Cristal Fizz, Castleacre and Soul Silver. From all the evidence so far and comparing the families, my pick would be Castleacre @around 13:2 currently. Hugo Palmer/Jamie Spencer combination but Cristal Fizz has the William Haggas/Frankie Dettori combination (1 pt E/W).
Result: Won. Cristal Fizz won
I can see UAE Prince winning this (2pts win) at around 7:4. He makes his handicap debut but seems to be a smart Colt in the making. Huge Future is no push-over though hence I also fancy a reverse forecast between them, and a small E/W bet on To be Wild.
Update: The jockeyAndrea Atzeni just mentioned on the Morning Line UAE Prince to be his best chance of the day
Result: Won. To Be Wild won.
I hope you enjoyed yesterday as much as I did. Nice little profit, especially on the horses. I'll be back tomorrow, starting with tennis and then hose racing tips around lunch time. Good night :-)
Wishful Dreaming, a brother to high-class chaser Wishful Thinking should win @ around 7:4 odds currently (2pts win), but I also recommend a small E/W bet on progressive Cliffs of Dover @ around 5:1 currently (1pt E/W) who won his last two races easily. Crystal Pearl also got his act together last time and could be now also worth a small E/W bet at around 11:1, however he is a drifter in the market this morning.
Result: Won. Cliffs of Dover won and Wishful Dreaming came 4th
Cloudberry @ around 6:4 currently (2pts win). Completed the treble but has had only 3 races this year, hence there should be plenty more to come. None in the opposition looks progressive.
Marracudja (3pts win), won his last race easily and should have a bright future. Currently around 2:1
Result: Won....but almost caused me a heart attack :-)
Specific Gravity won impressively last time at Dundalk but accordingly went up in the weights. However he has a jockey on board who claims 7 pounds, which balances out the rise in the weights and he effectively races off the same weight as last time. He could win at around 6:1 currently (1pt E/W). It is worth an E/W bet but I am also suggesting a small E/W interest in Roter Baron, who came close in his last race and is a course and distance winner in Dundalk. He seems to be back in the groove and at currently 7:1 (1pt E/W), I am definitely a player.
Update: Roter Baron is a non-runner now
This is ultra competitive but I am giving Rubensian another chance. The distance is not certain to suit but he was chasing a hat-trick prior to his last run where he went off awkwardly at the start but made up good ground close to the finish. At 16:1 I think he is worth a very small E/W bet (0.5pts E/W)
This should be won by Mohatem. He ran a cracker on his belated seasonal return and is Paul Hanagan's only ride at Wolverhampton (2pts win) @ around 2:1.
Result: Lost. That was a disappointing run.
I am giving an outside chance to Regal Flow. He won the race last year and course form counts for a lot in Cheltenham. It's his first run since January but at around 16:1 I think he could be worth a little interest (1pt E/W)
I like the chances of Lord Wishes in this race. The stable is in cracking form at the moment and he won a similar handicap at Wetherby nicely recently. Nick Scholfield is 2 out of 2 on him. It could be that he is more of a Wetherby specialist but at around 20:1 I will definitely be a player (1pt E/W). Valhalla with Johnson on board is the favorite but they are similarly rated on the RPR, hence Lord Wishes is the value bet.
Result: Lost. Valhalla came second
I strongly fancy the chances of Poitin in this race. He loves Dundalk and has won off this weight before. Drops in class after racing in a Group 3 last time. This race is much more realistic, though it's quite a competitive little race. Around 4:1 right now (2pts E/W)
I fancy Ardhoomey in this race and can't understand why bookies judge him a 11:1 chance. He won a Grade 2 easily last time out. He has also won in Dundalk. The negative is the draw but I think he should have the class to overcome it (2 pts E/W)
We had a good punting day yesterday and hopefully will continue the winning streak today. I start with the early tennis matches but there will be more to come later on for horse racing and football.
Have a nice day.
2:45 Carlisle - Wilton Milan (2pts win)
Skelton stable in great form and Wilton Milan had won when higher in the weights. I couldn't find anything progressive in opposition. Odds app. 7:4
Result: Lost. Disappointing run.
2:30 Ludlow - Forever My Friend
Will be my friend forever after this race. He demolished opposition in his last race with blinkers replacing cheekpieces. If they work again, he'll win. Nothing close to his RPR ratings in opposition, hence I am definitely a player at these generous odds of app. 9:2 (3pts E/W)
Result: Won and was a drifter in the market out to 7:1. Nice!!!!
3:30 Newton Abbot - Peter the Mayo Man
Makes his handicap debut but won his previous two races easily. He enters handicaps of quite a high RPR rating of 125, hence it is a bit of gamble if he can defy this mark, but I think he is worth it. Odds about 3:1 (1pt win)
Result: Was a Non-Runner
3:40 Ludlow - Dominada
Strong favorite. Odds around 1.66 are not appealing, hence I suggest to play in a small win double with Forever My Friend or Eltham or I'dliketheoption
Result: Won easily. Hope you had him in a double
7:45 Chelmsford - Eltham
I am giving Eltham another chance after she pulled up in her last race. Something must have gone amiss that day, but in her previous race she won impressively. Has had only 3 races so far and if everything is right she'll win. Odds app 9:2 (1pt E/W)
Result: Lost. No more chances.
3:05 Ludlow - I'dliketheoption
Unseated in his last race and jumping wasn't foot perfect. Other than that he has a great chance and is Barry Gerraghty's only ride. Odds around 2:1 (2pts win)
4:55 Thurles - Dorking
Made a pleasing start to handicaps and is worth a small E/W bet @ around 7:1 (1pt E/W)
Now, we had a few good horse racing results and some not too good in tennis.
The 'White Chocolate' / 'Dreamfield' double paied out well (6:1), so did 'Finelcity' at 7:2. I was totally wrong however with the 4:55 Navan race.
In the tennis we came close. Seppi won 7:5/7:5. The over 24 games just failed.
1:30 Newmarket - White Chocolate
Caught the eye on her first run behind an experienced horse and showed still greenness. Currently around 7:4 odds. These maidens are always tricky as you never know whats amongst the newcomers, hence only 1pt win.
Result: Won. It took a while for her to get on top. There´s improvement to come back up in distance.
Another suggestion could be the double with Dreamfield (3:40 Newmarket). Dreamfield was impressive on her first run, but the odds are too short for a single bet.
Result: Won by a shade. The way he races seems a sprinter in the making.
4:55 Navan - Papal Parade (2pts E/W)
She won impressively on her last run and, although 11lb higher and 5 years old, looks like she is still improving and well worth the 9:2 on offer. She is in rude health and loves softish conditions, hence I wouldn't bet against her. I however also suggest to cover the risk wih a small E/W bet on A Shin Kildare (1pt E/W) who looks progressive and has Pat Smullen on board.
Result: Both lost
3:30 Wocester - Alpha Male
I keep stakes usually low in Bumpers but at 5:1 I can't resist a little 1pt E/W bet. Henderson has a very good record in bumpers and it's Nico de Boinville's onlyride today.
Result: Finished 7th but lost his left-fore shoe. One for next time !!!
8:20 Kempton- Finelcity
I fancy the chances of Finelcity to make the treble. Jim Crowley on board who completed a treble yesterday. It's a competitive race however, hence low stakes (1pt win) @ 7:2 odds.
Result: Won. Did the treble, that's his winning done for now.